Retirement Withdrawal Calculator
Find out how long your retirement savings will last
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A retirement withdrawal calculator answers the most important question of your retired life: how long will my savings last? It models a portfolio that earns annual returns while you withdraw a steady amount each year, adjusts for inflation so your purchasing power stays constant, and tells you the year your balance is projected to hit zero. Use it to stress-test withdrawal rates against market returns and life expectancy.
Example Calculation
Starting balance: $1,000,000 Annual withdrawal: $40,000 (4% rule) Expected return: 6% Inflation: 3% Year 1: withdraw $40,000, balance grows to $1,017,600 Year 10: balance ~$960,000 Year 25: balance ~$640,000 Year 30: balance ~$420,000 Projected to last 35+ years
Withdrawal Formula
Real return = (1 + nominal) / (1 + inflation) − 1 Year-end balance = (Year-start − Withdrawal) × (1 + return) Withdrawal next year = Withdrawal × (1 + inflation) Years lasting = first year balance ≤ 0
Why the 4% Rule Is a Starting Point, Not a Law
The classic 4% rule (Bengen 1994, Trinity Study) was derived from US historical returns assuming a 30-year retirement and a 50/50 stock/bond portfolio. Modern researchers — including Bengen himself — have revised it up and down. Lower expected returns, longer retirements, and higher inflation push the safe rate down toward 3-3.5%. A more flexible withdrawal (cutting in down years) lets you start higher. This calculator shows you the trajectory so you can pick a rate that matches your tolerance for running out.
Frequently Asked Questions
What withdrawal rate is safe?
For a 30-year retirement with a balanced portfolio, 3.5-4% is the historical floor. For a 40-50 year retirement (early retirees), drop to 3-3.25%.
Should I use real or nominal returns?
Either works as long as inflation is treated consistently. This calculator uses nominal returns and applies inflation to your withdrawals, which mirrors real-life cash flow.
What about Social Security or a pension?
Subtract guaranteed income from your annual spending need first. If you spend $60k and Social Security covers $25k, your portfolio only needs to fund the remaining $35k.
Why do my numbers look worse than online articles?
Many articles assume 7-8% returns and 2% inflation — generous given current valuations. Try 5-6% real return for a more conservative projection.
What if the market crashes early in retirement?
Sequence-of-returns risk is the biggest threat. Keep 1-3 years of spending in cash so you don't sell stocks during a downturn, and consider lowering withdrawals during bad years.